SAG Awards Nominations: The Surprises, Snubs, and What They Mean for the Oscar Race
The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards nominations arrived this morning, and as one of the most reliable indicators for the Oscars—especially considering that the actors branch is the largest faction of the Academy—those selected are hoping their names appear on Oscar ballots, which begin today.
The SAG Awards have consistently recognized the casts of recent Best Picture winners like Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and CODA. In 2024, three out of four individual acting winners went on to win at the Oscars, with Emma Stone ("Poor Things") preventing a sweep by defeating SAG winner Lily Gladstone ("Killers of the Flower Moon").
So, who’s rising, who’s falling, and what do these nominations mean for the Oscars, which will announce their nominees on January 17? Here’s a breakdown.
UP: Demi Moore, The Substance
Moore’s accolades keep piling up. After winning her first Golden Globe, she earned her first individual SAG nomination for her role in The Substance, a blood-soaked tale about fear and self-loathing in Hollywood. Initially, an Oscar nomination seemed unlikely for Moore in this body-horror film, but now, it feels almost inevitable, with many believing she could even win. Her campaigning has been full of joy, and voters have been flocking to her Q&As months after the movie’s release.
UP: Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Pamela Anderson’s comeback is hard to ignore, with her role as an aging dancer in Gia Coppola’s The Last Showgirl resonating with voters. Similarly, Jamie Lee Curtis continues to enjoy the goodwill from her Everything Everywhere All at Once Oscar win. Although The Last Showgirl didn’t see widespread viewership, voters were eager to attend screenings, and both actresses have been campaigning hard.
DOWN: Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
This year is filled with exceptional lead actress contenders, and sadly, Kidman’s compelling performance in Babygirl didn’t make the cut. Despite the character's bold journey of sexual self-discovery, she didn’t quite connect with the SAG voters. A toast in her honor seems appropriate.
DOWN: Angelina Jolie, Maria
Jolie needed a nomination here, following a Golden Globe nod and a Gotham Awards tribute. However, Maria hasn’t won over critics, particularly for its portrayal of opera legend Maria Callas. Jolie must now hope that Oscar voters take a different view and reward her performance.
DOWN: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Despite earning praise from major film critics groups, Jean-Baptiste’s challenging role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths was overlooked. While the movie opens in theaters soon, it seems that some voters may have been put off by its tough subject matter, leaving Jean-Baptiste without a SAG nod.
UP: Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
While Wicked stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande were expected to land nominations, Jonathan Bailey’s inclusion for his role as the charming prince was a pleasant surprise. The SAG nomination could indicate strong support, and it remains to be seen whether the Academy’s acting branch will echo this enthusiasm.
DOWN: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Despite the hype surrounding Gladiator II, Washington didn’t secure a nomination for his performance. Did he not impress SAG voters, or was the competition too fierce?
EVEN: The Brutalist
The Brutalist has received significant recognition, including Golden Globe wins for Best Drama, Director, and lead actor Adrien Brody. However, the movie failed to secure a SAG ensemble nomination, which some see as a missed opportunity. While the film may not fit the traditional ensemble category, it’s still worth noting that recent Best Picture winners like The Shape of Water and Nomadland didn’t receive SAG ensemble nods either.
UP: A Complete Unknown
Timothée Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown earned him a nomination, along with Monica Barbaro for her role as Joan Baez. The film’s ensemble nod further solidifies its position in the Best Picture race, and it may boost Chalamet’s chances for a potential Oscar win.
DOWN: Margaret Qualley, The Substance
While Demi Moore received praise for The Substance, her co-star Margaret Qualley’s performance didn’t gain the same traction. Although Qualley’s portrayal of Sue’s transformation was compelling, it wasn’t enough to secure a nomination, despite her strong performances at events alongside Moore.
DOWN: Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Despite receiving some criticism for her Spanish in Emilia Pérez, Gomez’s portrayal of a drug cartel boss’ wife was a highlight. However, the film’s uneven reception likely contributed to her missing out on a nomination, despite her standout moments.
DOWN: Sing Sing
Sing Sing, a drama about a prison theater program, failed to secure much recognition. Although lead actor Colman Domingo earned a nomination, the movie struggled to attract voters, and it seems unlikely to gain significant traction as awards season progresses.
With these surprises and snubs, it’s clear that the race for the Oscars is heating up. As the nominations draw closer, these developments will have a significant impact on how the Academy votes.