Indiana's dream season hit a major roadblock on Saturday afternoon as the fifth-ranked Hoosiers suffered a 38-15 defeat at No. 2 Ohio State. Heading into the game, questions about Indiana’s status as a legitimate Big Ten contender and College Football Playoff (CFP) hopeful were swirling. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they couldn’t provide a resounding answer, struggling to muster just 151 total yards of offense — the fewest Ohio State has allowed against a ranked opponent in 17 years. Seventy-five of those yards came during a late touchdown drive when the game was already out of reach. The loss also marked Ohio State’s largest win over a top-five opponent since 2000.
Despite this setback, the Hoosiers' overall accomplishments this season remain significant. They entered the game ranked No. 6 in strength of record according to ESPN's FPI, a résumé that still positions them as a potential CFP contender. Indiana had been dominant, winning their first 10 games by an average margin of 30.1 points, playing in one of college football’s toughest conferences. However, none of their victories came against ranked opponents, and their only win over a team with a winning record came against FBS competition.
While Indiana has thrived against a manageable schedule, their inability to stay competitive against Ohio State has left their CFP hopes uncertain, placing their fate in the hands of the selection committee.
So, what must Indiana do now to secure a CFP spot?
First, finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record is a critical step. An 11-1 Big Ten team would always be a strong contender for one of the 12 CFP spots, regardless of what unfolds in other conferences. To reach that mark, the Hoosiers just need to defeat in-state rival Purdue. While Purdue is struggling this season with a 1-10 record and a lopsided defeat margin against top-10 teams, the win would push Indiana to the 11-win threshold.
While the Purdue victory may not make a huge impact on the selection committee, it would help Indiana meet the key criteria for a CFP bid. From there, it comes down to how the Hoosiers compare to other at-large teams.
Indiana received some good news from the SEC in Week 13, as three teams that were in the running for an at-large berth — No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 7 Alabama, and No. 15 Texas A&M — all suffered losses, each picking up their third defeat of the season. This increases Indiana’s chances of earning a spot over these teams, provided they win out.
The Hoosiers must also keep an eye on the ACC, as teams like Miami and SMU could potentially make the CFP if they finish 11-1, regardless of their conference championship game results.
The next CFP rankings will be pivotal in determining where Indiana stands in the eyes of the selection committee. Ultimately, the Hoosiers’ playoff hopes will rely on other teams’ missteps and their ability to close the season strong.